Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FESCO Group Co., Ltd. (600861.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.67 - $90.66$58.75
Multi-Stage$29.82 - $32.54$31.15
Blended Fair Value$44.95
Current Price$18.81
Upside138.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS51.36%12.07%0.520.030.040.020.010.060.090.130.180.19
YoY Growth--1,394.09%-13.90%119.09%63.64%-82.77%-28.46%-32.62%-24.97%-4.40%13.77%
Dividend Yield--2.41%0.17%0.17%0.07%0.08%0.64%1.09%1.50%1.25%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,157.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)403.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)753.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)231.42144.6486.78
Cash Retained (M)753.84753.84753.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-231.42-144.64-86.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)522.42609.20667.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)566.11566.11566.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.081.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.081.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.641.791.89
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.67$58.75$90.66
Upside / Downside116.20%212.35%381.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,157.081,232.291,312.391,397.701,488.551,585.301,632.86
Payout Ratio34.85%45.88%56.91%67.94%78.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)403.24565.38746.88949.601,175.511,426.771,510.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)510.35515.19520.02
Year 2 PV (M)608.57620.17631.87
Year 3 PV (M)698.44718.49738.92
Year 4 PV (M)780.45810.47841.34
Year 5 PV (M)855.08896.38939.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,426.5914,075.1014,748.43
Equity Value (M)16,879.4917,635.8018,419.85
Shares Outstanding (M)566.11566.11566.11
Fair Value$29.82$31.15$32.54
Upside / Downside58.51%65.62%72.98%

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