Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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LIAONING ENERGY INDUSTRY Co.,LTD (600758.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.23 - $30.52$13.24
Multi-Stage$3.49 - $3.81$3.64
Blended Fair Value$8.44
Current Price$3.74
Upside125.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.62%37.36%0.110.160.140.160.210.280.370.330.340.42
YoY Growth---31.32%18.09%-12.33%-25.56%-23.84%-25.28%10.65%-0.86%-19.66%8,911.51%
Dividend Yield--2.98%5.06%3.32%3.88%6.43%8.17%8.87%5.38%3.53%4.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)143.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.9725.6115.36
Cash Retained (M)61.4761.4761.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.97-25.61-15.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.5035.8746.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,334.981,334.981,334.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.23$13.24$30.52
Upside / Downside66.49%254.07%715.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.85218.16232.34247.45263.53280.66289.08
Payout Ratio69.99%73.99%77.99%82.00%86.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)143.38161.43181.22202.90226.63252.59267.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)148.64150.05151.46
Year 2 PV (M)153.65156.58159.53
Year 3 PV (M)158.41162.96167.59
Year 4 PV (M)162.93169.20175.64
Year 5 PV (M)167.22175.29183.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,865.174,051.864,245.69
Equity Value (M)4,656.034,865.945,083.61
Shares Outstanding (M)1,334.981,334.981,334.98
Fair Value$3.49$3.64$3.81
Upside / Downside-6.75%-2.54%1.82%

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