Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Changjiang Publishing & Media Co.,Ltd (600757.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.72 - $31.23$21.79
Multi-Stage$12.83 - $13.99$13.40
Blended Fair Value$17.59
Current Price$8.51
Upside106.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.42%40.02%0.400.320.370.350.200.150.100.050.030.03
YoY Growth--25.00%-13.54%5.65%75.16%31.98%50.22%101.49%58.21%13.72%101.46%
Dividend Yield--4.61%3.91%5.62%5.53%3.70%2.89%1.35%0.72%0.38%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,115.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)498.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)616.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)223.03139.3983.64
Cash Retained (M)616.94616.94616.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-223.03-139.39-83.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)393.92477.55533.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,213.711,213.711,213.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.390.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.390.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.07%6.07%7.07%
Fair Value$15.72$21.79$31.23
Upside / Downside84.67%156.01%266.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,115.141,182.811,254.581,330.711,411.461,497.121,542.03
Payout Ratio44.68%53.74%62.81%71.87%80.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)498.19635.64787.94956.391,142.371,347.401,426.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.07%6.07%7.07%
Year 1 PV (M)572.50577.95583.40
Year 2 PV (M)639.18651.40663.74
Year 3 PV (M)698.75718.89739.42
Year 4 PV (M)751.73780.76810.62
Year 5 PV (M)798.57837.30877.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,107.3512,694.5913,304.39
Equity Value (M)15,568.0716,260.8916,979.10
Shares Outstanding (M)1,213.711,213.711,213.71
Fair Value$12.83$13.40$13.99
Upside / Downside50.73%57.43%64.39%

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