Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiang Zhong Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (600750.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$224.80 - $264.85$248.21
Multi-Stage$59.54 - $65.15$62.29
Blended Fair Value$155.25
Current Price$21.93
Upside607.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.21%20.01%1.221.271.170.490.260.230.210.190.200.19
YoY Growth---4.00%9.19%137.48%88.95%11.14%8.89%11.67%-2.33%2.46%-2.56%
Dividend Yield--5.43%5.21%5.83%3.68%2.47%2.44%1.75%1.57%1.14%1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)837.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)779.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)167.46104.6662.80
Cash Retained (M)57.7057.7057.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-167.46-104.66-62.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)-109.76-46.97-5.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)628.72628.72628.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.07-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.07-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.23
WACC / Discount Rate5.39%5.39%5.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$224.80$248.21$264.85
Upside / Downside925.08%1,031.81%1,107.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)837.30891.73949.691,011.421,077.161,147.181,181.59
Payout Ratio93.11%92.49%91.87%91.24%90.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)779.61824.74872.44922.86976.141,032.461,092.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.39%5.39%5.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)775.23782.58789.93
Year 2 PV (M)770.84785.53800.35
Year 3 PV (M)766.45788.45810.87
Year 4 PV (M)762.04791.34821.49
Year 5 PV (M)757.62794.21832.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,600.0535,222.9436,907.95
Equity Value (M)37,432.2239,165.0540,962.78
Shares Outstanding (M)628.72628.72628.72
Fair Value$59.54$62.29$65.15
Upside / Downside171.49%184.06%197.09%

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