Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Changchun FAWAY Automobile Components Co.,Ltd (600742.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.79 - $17.78$13.12
Multi-Stage$9.80 - $10.70$10.25
Blended Fair Value$11.68
Current Price$10.22
Upside14.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.71%8.57%0.260.260.280.280.150.440.300.300.170.15
YoY Growth--2.50%-8.26%1.07%88.59%-66.52%44.61%-0.73%82.91%9.96%31.37%
Dividend Yield--2.87%2.79%3.19%2.83%1.56%5.56%2.69%3.04%1.47%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)500.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)268.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)232.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.0562.5337.52
Cash Retained (M)232.08232.08232.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.05-62.53-37.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.03169.55194.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)743.10743.10743.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate3.71%4.71%5.71%
Fair Value$9.79$13.12$17.78
Upside / Downside-4.16%28.34%73.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)500.26523.80548.45574.26601.29629.59648.48
Payout Ratio53.61%60.89%68.16%75.44%82.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)268.18318.92373.85433.24497.40566.63599.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate3.71%4.71%5.71%
Year 1 PV (M)288.71291.50294.28
Year 2 PV (M)306.38312.32318.31
Year 3 PV (M)321.42330.81340.38
Year 4 PV (M)334.06347.13360.59
Year 5 PV (M)344.51361.45379.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,690.935,970.656,261.26
Equity Value (M)7,286.027,613.857,953.86
Shares Outstanding (M)743.10743.10743.10
Fair Value$9.80$10.25$10.70
Upside / Downside-4.06%0.26%4.73%

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