Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NanJing Pharmaceutical Company Limited (600713.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.43 - $79.45$31.41
Multi-Stage$8.93 - $9.75$9.33
Blended Fair Value$20.37
Current Price$4.94
Upside312.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.16%7.86%0.380.440.360.700.270.380.280.280.110.13
YoY Growth---14.14%21.75%-48.35%165.01%-29.57%35.79%0.09%151.72%-17.51%-25.04%
Dividend Yield--7.58%9.54%7.02%12.26%6.15%8.53%5.31%4.89%1.43%1.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)530.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)414.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.1466.3439.80
Cash Retained (M)115.96115.96115.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.14-66.34-39.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8149.6276.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,328.541,328.541,328.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.43$31.41$79.45
Upside / Downside212.36%535.92%1,508.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)530.72565.21601.95641.08682.75727.13748.94
Payout Ratio78.15%80.52%82.89%85.26%87.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)414.76455.11498.96546.59598.29654.41692.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)418.67422.64426.60
Year 2 PV (M)422.24430.29438.40
Year 3 PV (M)425.50437.72450.16
Year 4 PV (M)428.46444.93461.88
Year 5 PV (M)431.11451.94473.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,741.3410,211.8510,700.37
Equity Value (M)11,867.3212,399.3512,950.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,328.541,328.541,328.54
Fair Value$8.93$9.33$9.75
Upside / Downside80.82%88.93%97.33%

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