Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Bestsun Energy Co., Ltd. (600681.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.89 - $4.82$3.74
Multi-Stage$7.29 - $8.01$7.64
Blended Fair Value$5.69
Current Price$3.81
Upside49.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.45%9.23%0.280.360.460.570.490.430.360.010.000.18
YoY Growth---22.90%-21.61%-20.13%17.85%13.05%19.18%2,516.90%217.14%-97.53%53.63%
Dividend Yield--8.30%9.57%10.55%11.13%8.52%8.00%3.78%0.16%0.04%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)335.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.1941.9925.19
Cash Retained (M)15.6615.6615.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.19-41.99-25.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-51.53-26.34-9.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,340.891,340.891,340.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate5.69%5.69%5.69%
Growth Rate-1.16%-0.16%0.84%
Fair Value$2.89$3.74$4.82
Upside / Downside-24.10%-1.81%26.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)335.93335.40334.87334.34333.82333.29343.29
Payout Ratio95.34%94.27%93.20%92.14%91.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.27316.19312.11308.05304.00299.96317.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.69%5.69%5.69%
Growth Rate-1.16%-0.16%0.84%
Year 1 PV (M)296.16299.16302.15
Year 2 PV (M)273.83279.40285.02
Year 3 PV (M)253.15260.91268.82
Year 4 PV (M)233.99243.61253.52
Year 5 PV (M)216.26227.43239.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,501.498,940.339,397.11
Equity Value (M)9,774.8810,250.8310,745.67
Shares Outstanding (M)1,340.891,340.891,340.89
Fair Value$7.29$7.64$8.01
Upside / Downside91.33%100.65%110.34%

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