Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Jingneng Power Co., Ltd. (600578.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.91 - $58.89$25.36
Multi-Stage$13.36 - $14.64$13.99
Blended Fair Value$19.68
Current Price$4.13
Upside376.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.16%0.49%0.320.370.250.360.350.330.260.310.310.29
YoY Growth---11.65%49.20%-30.64%1.84%6.55%24.71%-15.71%0.70%4.89%-4.67%
Dividend Yield--9.07%10.97%7.87%12.69%7.98%11.95%7.68%8.98%6.95%6.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,477.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,154.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,322.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)695.54434.71260.83
Cash Retained (M)2,322.942,322.942,322.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-695.54-434.71-260.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,627.391,888.222,062.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,792.756,792.756,792.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate3.76%4.76%5.76%
Fair Value$14.91$25.36$58.89
Upside / Downside261.01%514.10%1,326.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,477.713,643.373,816.923,998.734,189.214,388.764,520.42
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,154.771,623.632,134.532,690.433,294.443,949.884,181.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate3.76%4.76%5.76%
Year 1 PV (M)1,508.371,522.911,537.44
Year 2 PV (M)1,842.231,877.911,913.93
Year 3 PV (M)2,157.172,220.142,284.32
Year 4 PV (M)2,453.942,549.922,648.68
Year 5 PV (M)2,733.312,867.583,007.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,066.5683,999.7788,086.06
Equity Value (M)90,761.5895,038.2399,477.52
Shares Outstanding (M)6,792.756,792.756,792.75
Fair Value$13.36$13.99$14.64
Upside / Downside223.52%238.77%254.59%

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