Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang CONBA Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (600572.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.69 - $2.41$2.05
Multi-Stage$2.67 - $2.92$2.80
Blended Fair Value$2.42
Current Price$4.35
Upside-44.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.19%9.18%0.190.150.180.030.050.190.180.120.100.14
YoY Growth--24.61%-14.32%476.80%-40.47%-72.46%6.81%52.62%12.65%-24.29%71.47%
Dividend Yield--4.28%3.14%3.02%0.63%1.25%3.68%1.73%1.66%1.55%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)687.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)382.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)305.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)137.6086.0051.60
Cash Retained (M)305.56305.56305.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-137.60-86.00-51.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.97219.56253.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,733.302,733.302,733.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-1.81%-0.81%0.19%
Fair Value$1.69$2.05$2.41
Upside / Downside-61.06%-52.95%-44.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)687.99682.45676.94671.48666.07660.70680.52
Payout Ratio55.59%62.47%69.35%76.23%83.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)382.43426.32469.47511.90553.62594.63629.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-1.81%-0.81%0.19%
Year 1 PV (M)384.12388.03391.94
Year 2 PV (M)381.13388.93396.81
Year 3 PV (M)374.44386.00397.79
Year 4 PV (M)364.87379.96395.52
Year 5 PV (M)353.11371.46390.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,443.495,726.386,020.90
Equity Value (M)7,301.167,640.767,993.53
Shares Outstanding (M)2,733.302,733.302,733.30
Fair Value$2.67$2.80$2.92
Upside / Downside-38.59%-35.74%-32.77%

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