Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Innovation New Material Technology Co., Ltd. Class A (600361.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.73 - $44.99$27.05
Multi-Stage$5.55 - $6.06$5.80
Blended Fair Value$16.42
Current Price$4.22
Upside289.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.63%9.22%0.170.140.080.080.050.060.050.040.080.07
YoY Growth--25.73%76.71%1.30%54.88%-20.44%22.06%30.62%-53.49%12.53%4.39%
Dividend Yield--4.12%2.92%1.25%1.43%1.30%1.29%1.08%0.74%1.23%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)929.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)720.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)209.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.81116.1369.68
Cash Retained (M)209.02209.02209.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.81-116.13-69.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.2092.88139.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,107.244,107.244,107.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.73$27.05$44.99
Upside / Downside154.26%540.99%966.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)929.07989.461,053.781,122.271,195.221,272.911,311.10
Payout Ratio77.50%80.00%82.50%85.00%87.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)720.05791.59869.38953.941,045.821,145.621,212.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)730.95737.88744.80
Year 2 PV (M)741.28755.40769.65
Year 3 PV (M)751.07772.63794.60
Year 4 PV (M)760.34789.58819.65
Year 5 PV (M)769.09806.23844.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,025.6619,944.6120,898.73
Equity Value (M)22,778.3923,806.3324,872.24
Shares Outstanding (M)4,107.244,107.244,107.24
Fair Value$5.55$5.80$6.06
Upside / Downside31.42%37.35%43.50%

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