Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (600309.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$200.47 - $704.20$659.94
Multi-Stage$90.99 - $99.52$95.18
Blended Fair Value$377.56
Current Price$66.58
Upside467.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.12%20.99%3.251.602.501.301.302.001.310.660.140.21
YoY Growth--102.45%-36.00%92.31%0.00%-35.00%53.12%99.23%375.98%-33.33%-57.14%
Dividend Yield--4.83%1.90%2.61%1.61%1.23%4.86%2.78%1.64%0.61%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,097.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,003.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,093.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,219.411,387.13832.28
Cash Retained (M)6,093.916,093.916,093.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,219.41-1,387.13-832.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,874.504,706.785,261.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,133.933,133.933,133.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.241.501.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.241.501.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.833.103.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$200.47$659.94$704.20
Upside / Downside201.09%891.20%957.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,097.0311,818.3412,586.5313,404.6514,275.9615,203.8915,660.01
Payout Ratio45.09%54.07%63.05%72.03%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,003.126,389.967,935.959,655.9211,565.9613,683.5014,485.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,916.365,972.446,028.52
Year 2 PV (M)6,803.186,932.767,063.56
Year 3 PV (M)7,664.137,884.148,108.32
Year 4 PV (M)8,499.778,826.659,162.87
Year 5 PV (M)9,310.649,760.3510,227.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)246,977.05258,906.13271,291.77
Equity Value (M)285,171.13298,282.47311,882.31
Shares Outstanding (M)3,133.933,133.933,133.93
Fair Value$90.99$95.18$99.52
Upside / Downside36.67%42.95%49.47%

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