Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Inner Mongolia Erdos Resources Co.,ltd. (600295.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.51 - $14.77$11.19
Multi-Stage$10.52 - $11.48$10.99
Blended Fair Value$11.09
Current Price$10.18
Upside8.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.09%4.01%0.840.751.140.600.570.450.490.460.460.48
YoY Growth--10.94%-33.78%88.52%6.06%25.90%-8.23%6.24%1.88%-4.34%-15.65%
Dividend Yield--9.13%6.87%10.40%4.64%7.01%11.79%10.09%8.21%8.90%11.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,832.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,702.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)366.46229.04137.42
Cash Retained (M)129.61129.61129.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-366.46-229.04-137.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)-236.85-99.43-7.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,833.802,833.802,833.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.040.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.040.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Fair Value$8.51$11.19$14.77
Upside / Downside-16.44%9.92%45.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,832.311,895.941,961.792,029.922,100.412,173.362,238.56
Payout Ratio92.93%92.34%91.76%91.17%90.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,702.701,750.731,800.051,850.681,902.661,956.022,070.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,594.981,610.541,626.11
Year 2 PV (M)1,494.021,523.321,552.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,399.391,440.761,482.93
Year 4 PV (M)1,310.701,362.611,416.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,227.581,288.661,352.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,780.9323,914.4025,092.54
Equity Value (M)29,807.5831,140.2832,522.68
Shares Outstanding (M)2,833.802,833.802,833.80
Fair Value$10.52$10.99$11.48
Upside / Downside3.33%7.95%12.74%

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