Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway CO.,LTD. (600269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.40 - $24.79$17.23
Multi-Stage$19.78 - $21.74$20.74
Blended Fair Value$18.98
Current Price$4.85
Upside291.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.59%-1.18%0.300.290.310.410.420.420.470.440.440.43
YoY Growth--0.71%-3.37%-25.45%-3.52%1.61%-11.51%7.27%-0.87%3.44%28.33%
Dividend Yield--5.78%6.47%9.00%11.34%11.85%12.03%10.17%9.14%8.16%8.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,755.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)539.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,215.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)351.11219.44131.67
Cash Retained (M)1,215.751,215.751,215.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-351.11-219.44-131.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)864.64996.311,084.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$12.40$17.23$24.79
Upside / Downside155.62%255.20%411.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,755.541,796.001,837.391,879.741,923.061,967.382,026.40
Payout Ratio30.75%42.60%54.45%66.30%78.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)539.79765.061,000.441,246.251,502.861,770.641,874.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)713.49720.54727.58
Year 2 PV (M)870.11887.37904.81
Year 3 PV (M)1,010.841,041.071,071.90
Year 4 PV (M)1,136.811,182.371,229.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,249.091,311.971,377.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,585.1143,678.5145,855.38
Equity Value (M)46,565.4548,821.8351,166.30
Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
Fair Value$19.78$20.74$21.74
Upside / Downside307.85%327.62%348.15%

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