Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated (600098.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.04 - $130.82$122.60
Multi-Stage$30.69 - $33.61$32.12
Blended Fair Value$77.36
Current Price$6.59
Upside1,073.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.59%16.25%0.530.200.100.130.040.080.080.080.150.14
YoY Growth--163.02%100.00%-22.50%240.00%-51.17%0.00%0.00%-47.37%5.56%19.91%
Dividend Yield--8.27%3.12%1.69%2.04%0.57%1.34%1.18%1.26%1.57%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,303.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,611.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)692.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)460.77287.98172.79
Cash Retained (M)692.79692.79692.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-460.77-287.98-172.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)232.02404.81520.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,502.363,502.363,502.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate5.27%5.27%5.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$111.04$122.60$130.82
Upside / Downside1,584.91%1,760.34%1,885.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,303.832,453.582,613.072,782.912,963.803,156.453,251.14
Payout Ratio69.93%73.94%77.96%81.97%85.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,611.051,814.262,037.082,281.202,548.452,840.813,007.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.27%5.27%5.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,707.321,723.501,739.69
Year 2 PV (M)1,804.021,838.381,873.07
Year 3 PV (M)1,901.141,955.712,011.32
Year 4 PV (M)1,998.682,075.542,154.60
Year 5 PV (M)2,096.652,197.922,303.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)97,971.51102,703.57107,616.74
Equity Value (M)107,479.32112,494.63117,698.48
Shares Outstanding (M)3,502.363,502.363,502.36
Fair Value$30.69$32.12$33.61
Upside / Downside365.67%387.40%409.95%

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