Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Xiamen Xiangyu Co., Ltd. (600057.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.90 - $86.39$39.81
Multi-Stage$20.56 - $22.48$21.50
Blended Fair Value$30.66
Current Price$7.01
Upside337.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.58%13.26%0.821.261.090.810.770.690.470.340.180.22
YoY Growth---34.43%15.53%34.43%4.56%11.98%48.60%36.63%85.15%-14.98%-8.84%
Dividend Yield--14.05%18.77%10.13%9.20%12.04%13.53%9.11%6.25%2.60%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,162.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,675.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)487.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)432.49270.30162.18
Cash Retained (M)487.22487.22487.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-432.49-270.30-162.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.73216.92325.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,539.042,539.042,539.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Fair Value$23.90$39.81$86.39
Upside / Downside241.01%467.93%1,132.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,162.432,273.222,389.682,512.102,640.802,776.092,859.38
Payout Ratio77.47%79.98%82.48%84.99%87.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,675.211,818.011,971.042,134.982,310.542,498.482,644.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,681.481,697.631,713.78
Year 2 PV (M)1,686.121,718.661,751.51
Year 3 PV (M)1,689.201,738.341,788.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,690.831,756.721,824.53
Year 5 PV (M)1,691.061,773.841,859.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,760.2645,902.3848,127.59
Equity Value (M)52,198.9554,587.5857,065.66
Shares Outstanding (M)2,539.042,539.042,539.04
Fair Value$20.56$21.50$22.48
Upside / Downside193.27%206.70%220.62%

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