Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jioushun Construction Co., Ltd. (5547.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$247.52 - $946.41$714.08
Multi-Stage$464.63 - $512.89$488.28
Blended Fair Value$601.18
Current Price$22.07
Upside2,623.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.74%0.00%1.051.410.800.090.971.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.00%74.83%783.93%-90.67%-4.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.93%8.81%5.15%0.42%5.91%5.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6821.6813.01
Cash Retained (M)72.6172.6172.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.68-21.68-13.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.9350.9359.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.1534.1534.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.111.491.75
LTM Dividend per Share2.952.952.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.111.491.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.064.444.70
WACC / Discount Rate0.36%0.36%0.36%
Growth Rate-1.26%-0.26%0.74%
Fair Value$247.52$714.08$946.41
Upside / Downside1,021.51%3,135.54%4,188.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.41172.96172.50172.06171.61171.16176.29
Payout Ratio58.13%64.50%70.88%77.25%83.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.80111.56122.27132.92143.51154.04163.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.36%0.36%0.36%
Growth Rate-1.26%-0.26%0.74%
Year 1 PV (M)110.05111.16112.28
Year 2 PV (M)118.97121.39123.84
Year 3 PV (M)127.57131.49135.48
Year 4 PV (M)135.87141.46147.22
Year 5 PV (M)143.87151.30159.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,229.8016,016.7916,835.98
Equity Value (M)15,866.1216,673.5917,513.84
Shares Outstanding (M)34.1534.1534.15
Fair Value$464.63$488.28$512.89
Upside / Downside2,005.27%2,112.42%2,223.91%

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