Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Excelliance MOS Corporation (5299.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.02 - $106.87$79.76
Multi-Stage$95.61 - $104.69$100.07
Blended Fair Value$89.92
Current Price$75.00
Upside19.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.09%26.80%4.078.328.094.493.773.501.890.480.180.44
YoY Growth---51.05%2.88%80.21%18.95%7.84%85.46%293.50%161.39%-57.95%15.09%
Dividend Yield--4.71%7.30%6.15%2.35%2.22%4.47%1.85%0.49%0.66%4.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)225.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)211.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.1428.2116.93
Cash Retained (M)14.5214.5214.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.14-28.21-16.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)-30.62-13.70-2.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.3751.3751.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.60-0.27-0.05
LTM Dividend per Share4.114.114.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.60-0.27-0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.844.06
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate1.09%2.09%3.09%
Fair Value$60.02$79.76$106.87
Upside / Downside-19.98%6.35%42.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)225.71230.41235.22240.13245.14250.25257.76
Payout Ratio93.57%92.85%92.14%91.43%90.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)211.19213.95216.73219.54222.37225.22238.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate1.09%2.09%3.09%
Year 1 PV (M)197.98199.94201.90
Year 2 PV (M)185.59189.28193.01
Year 3 PV (M)173.97179.18184.50
Year 4 PV (M)163.06169.61176.35
Year 5 PV (M)152.82160.53168.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,038.134,241.864,453.73
Equity Value (M)4,911.555,140.405,378.04
Shares Outstanding (M)51.3751.3751.37
Fair Value$95.61$100.07$104.69
Upside / Downside27.48%33.42%39.59%

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