Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Motion Technology Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. (4589.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.21 - $203.33$130.85
Multi-Stage$390.22 - $430.97$410.19
Blended Fair Value$270.52
Current Price$40.10
Upside574.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%1.581.480.680.390.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%117.27%73.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.59%3.34%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.9915.629.37
Cash Retained (M)40.6440.6440.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.99-15.62-9.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6525.0231.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.8725.8725.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.971.21
LTM Dividend per Share3.263.263.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.971.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.864.234.47
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$90.21$130.85$203.33
Upside / Downside124.95%226.31%407.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124.93123.68122.44121.22120.01118.81122.37
Payout Ratio67.47%71.98%76.48%80.99%85.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.2989.0293.6598.17102.60106.93113.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)86.2387.1187.99
Year 2 PV (M)87.8689.6691.49
Year 3 PV (M)89.2291.9894.79
Year 4 PV (M)90.3194.0697.92
Year 5 PV (M)91.1795.92100.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,651.4510,154.0310,677.32
Equity Value (M)10,096.2510,612.7511,150.37
Shares Outstanding (M)25.8725.8725.87
Fair Value$390.22$410.19$430.97
Upside / Downside873.13%922.91%974.73%

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