Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Value Valves Co., Ltd. (4580.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.74 - $62.41$52.24
Multi-Stage$73.78 - $80.75$77.19
Blended Fair Value$64.72
Current Price$79.20
Upside-18.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS4.34%0.00%4.484.904.874.334.233.620.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---8.57%0.64%12.52%2.20%16.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.96%5.07%5.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)261.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)207.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.2232.6419.58
Cash Retained (M)54.0754.0754.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.22-32.64-19.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.8521.4334.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.2046.2046.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.460.75
LTM Dividend per Share4.484.484.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.460.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.524.945.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate-1.57%-0.57%0.43%
Fair Value$42.74$52.24$62.41
Upside / Downside-46.03%-34.04%-21.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)261.11259.62258.13256.66255.19253.73261.34
Payout Ratio79.29%81.43%83.57%85.72%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)207.04211.42215.74220.00224.21228.36241.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate-1.57%-0.57%0.43%
Year 1 PV (M)192.29194.24196.20
Year 2 PV (M)178.47182.12185.80
Year 3 PV (M)165.53170.63175.83
Year 4 PV (M)153.44159.77166.30
Year 5 PV (M)142.14149.51157.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,576.752,710.332,849.40
Equity Value (M)3,408.633,566.613,730.71
Shares Outstanding (M)46.2046.2046.20
Fair Value$73.78$77.19$80.75
Upside / Downside-6.85%-2.53%1.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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