Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tsumura & Co. (4540.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,192.30 - $26,984.96$14,485.27
Multi-Stage$6,214.70 - $6,786.41$6,495.38
Blended Fair Value$10,490.33
Current Price$3,621.00
Upside189.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.00%7.17%119.7868.0665.0165.0165.0165.0264.9758.4859.4659.95
YoY Growth--75.99%4.70%0.00%0.00%-0.02%0.08%11.10%-1.65%-0.82%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.45%1.65%2.44%2.13%1.86%2.31%2.11%1.63%1.30%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,403.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,382.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,021.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,480.603,425.382,055.23
Cash Retained (M)17,021.0017,021.0017,021.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,480.60-3,425.38-2,055.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,540.4013,595.6314,965.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.3175.3175.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share153.23180.52198.72
LTM Dividend per Share137.85137.85137.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share153.23180.52198.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend291.09318.37336.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9,192.30$14,485.27$26,984.96
Upside / Downside153.86%300.04%645.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,403.0029,184.2031,081.1733,101.4435,253.0437,544.4838,670.82
Payout Ratio37.89%48.31%58.73%69.15%79.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,382.0014,098.6218,254.5322,891.1528,053.4133,790.0435,770.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12,831.8112,953.4313,075.06
Year 2 PV (M)15,121.4415,409.4615,700.20
Year 3 PV (M)17,258.4317,753.8618,258.67
Year 4 PV (M)19,249.9819,990.2820,751.73
Year 5 PV (M)21,103.0222,122.3023,180.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)382,481.04400,955.02420,136.04
Equity Value (M)468,045.71489,184.35511,102.30
Shares Outstanding (M)75.3175.3175.31
Fair Value$6,214.70$6,495.38$6,786.41
Upside / Downside71.63%79.38%87.42%

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