Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sanyo Chemical Industries Ltd. (4471.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,543.71 - $4,915.61$4,231.73
Multi-Stage$5,801.31 - $6,374.62$6,082.36
Blended Fair Value$5,157.04
Current Price$4,120.00
Upside25.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.81%8.55%169.97169.70169.20164.28139.37134.39114.64109.5889.6979.79
YoY Growth--0.16%0.29%3.00%17.87%3.70%17.23%4.62%22.18%12.41%6.65%
Dividend Yield--4.65%4.22%3.99%3.45%2.58%2.90%2.00%2.28%1.70%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,629.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,760.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,869.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,725.801,703.631,022.18
Cash Retained (M)9,869.009,869.009,869.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,725.80-1,703.63-1,022.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,143.208,165.388,846.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.1222.1222.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share322.91369.12399.92
LTM Dividend per Share169.97169.97169.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share322.91369.12399.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend492.88539.09569.89
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Fair Value$3,543.71$4,231.73$4,915.61
Upside / Downside-13.99%2.71%19.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,629.0013,275.5512,931.2612,595.9112,269.2511,951.0612,309.59
Payout Ratio27.59%40.07%52.55%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,760.005,319.596,795.768,191.789,510.8310,755.9511,386.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)4,794.394,844.124,893.85
Year 2 PV (M)5,520.115,635.225,751.52
Year 3 PV (M)5,997.136,185.696,378.17
Year 4 PV (M)6,275.366,539.816,812.53
Year 5 PV (M)6,396.236,734.927,087.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)99,349.93104,610.59110,091.77
Equity Value (M)128,333.15134,550.35141,015.64
Shares Outstanding (M)22.1222.1222.12
Fair Value$5,801.31$6,082.36$6,374.62
Upside / Downside40.81%47.63%54.72%

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