Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arabian Centres Company (4321.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.28 - $39.46$31.82
Multi-Stage$59.17 - $65.22$62.13
Blended Fair Value$46.98
Current Price$20.50
Upside129.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%1.390.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,255.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)305.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)950.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)251.10156.9494.16
Cash Retained (M)950.31950.31950.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-251.10-156.94-94.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)699.21793.37856.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)474.94474.94474.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.471.671.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.471.671.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.112.312.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.28$31.82$39.46
Upside / Downside23.34%55.22%92.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,255.481,242.931,230.501,218.191,206.011,193.951,229.77
Payout Ratio24.31%37.45%50.58%63.72%76.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)305.18465.43622.44776.27926.961,074.561,137.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)433.84438.27442.70
Year 2 PV (M)540.83551.92563.13
Year 3 PV (M)628.72648.16668.00
Year 4 PV (M)699.82728.82758.72
Year 5 PV (M)756.19795.57836.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,043.7626,347.8527,705.70
Equity Value (M)28,103.1629,510.5930,974.82
Shares Outstanding (M)474.94474.94474.94
Fair Value$59.17$62.13$65.22
Upside / Downside188.64%203.10%218.14%

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