Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jarir Marketing Company (4190.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.07 - $24.62$17.75
Multi-Stage$14.81 - $16.16$15.47
Blended Fair Value$16.61
Current Price$13.95
Upside19.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.37%5.97%0.830.830.770.790.770.820.740.620.530.57
YoY Growth--0.61%7.14%-2.53%2.60%-5.52%9.95%19.08%16.90%-6.70%22.74%
Dividend Yield--6.38%5.69%4.72%4.01%4.23%6.38%4.69%4.74%5.26%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,014.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,008.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)202.94126.8476.10
Cash Retained (M)6.706.706.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-202.94-126.84-76.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-196.24-120.14-69.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.001,200.001,200.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.10-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.10-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$13.07$17.75$24.62
Upside / Downside-6.34%27.26%76.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,014.701,056.841,100.741,146.461,194.081,243.681,280.99
Payout Ratio99.34%97.47%95.60%93.74%91.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,008.001,030.131,052.351,074.651,096.981,119.311,184.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)940.36949.47958.59
Year 2 PV (M)876.93894.02911.27
Year 3 PV (M)817.47841.48865.95
Year 4 PV (M)761.74791.71822.56
Year 5 PV (M)709.52744.58781.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,670.2814,345.8715,047.91
Equity Value (M)17,776.3018,567.1319,387.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.001,200.001,200.00
Fair Value$14.81$15.47$16.16
Upside / Downside6.19%10.91%15.81%

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