Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nayifat Finance Company (4081.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.00 - $8.74$7.32
Multi-Stage$10.68 - $11.72$11.19
Blended Fair Value$9.26
Current Price$13.43
Upside-31.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.631.270.820.710.710.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-50.73%54.53%15.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%4.08%5.01%2.80%2.41%2.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.2612.047.22
Cash Retained (M)36.2936.2936.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.26-12.04-7.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.0324.2529.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.88119.88119.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.200.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.200.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.00$7.32$8.74
Upside / Downside-55.36%-45.48%-34.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.2995.3394.3793.4392.5091.5794.32
Payout Ratio62.31%67.85%73.39%78.92%84.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.0064.6869.2673.7478.1282.4187.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)59.0159.6160.21
Year 2 PV (M)57.6558.8360.02
Year 3 PV (M)55.9957.7359.49
Year 4 PV (M)54.1256.3758.68
Year 5 PV (M)52.0954.8057.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,001.931,054.101,108.43
Equity Value (M)1,280.791,341.431,404.46
Shares Outstanding (M)119.88119.88119.88
Fair Value$10.68$11.19$11.72
Upside / Downside-20.44%-16.68%-12.76%

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