Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Al Hammadi Holding Company (4007.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.72 - $26.24$21.09
Multi-Stage$22.42 - $24.46$23.42
Blended Fair Value$22.26
Current Price$34.42
Upside-35.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.401.041.240.820.000.000.560.000.560.47
YoY Growth--34.52%-16.04%51.17%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%20.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.40%1.80%2.55%2.42%0.00%0.00%3.00%0.00%1.84%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.1133.1919.92
Cash Retained (M)41.7841.7841.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.11-33.19-19.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.338.5921.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.26160.26160.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.050.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.050.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Fair Value$16.72$21.09$26.24
Upside / Downside-51.42%-38.72%-23.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.55272.04278.70285.51292.50299.65308.64
Payout Ratio84.27%85.41%86.56%87.71%88.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.77232.36241.24250.42259.90269.69285.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Year 1 PV (M)210.15212.22214.30
Year 2 PV (M)197.33201.24205.19
Year 3 PV (M)185.26190.79196.43
Year 4 PV (M)173.90180.85188.02
Year 5 PV (M)163.20171.41179.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,662.832,796.692,935.88
Equity Value (M)3,592.673,753.213,919.75
Shares Outstanding (M)160.26160.26160.26
Fair Value$22.42$23.42$24.46
Upside / Downside-34.87%-31.96%-28.94%

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