Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Modern Dental Group Limited (3600.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.92 - $186.62$68.96
Multi-Stage$19.82 - $21.67$20.73
Blended Fair Value$44.85
Current Price$4.26
Upside952.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.52%26.76%0.170.100.080.200.020.050.040.040.020.03
YoY Growth--62.23%27.83%-58.46%780.92%-51.97%10.21%17.65%61.90%-19.13%73.11%
Dividend Yield--4.09%2.47%3.40%3.57%1.50%3.03%3.21%1.70%0.78%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)886.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)582.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.23110.7766.46
Cash Retained (M)582.09582.09582.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.23-110.77-66.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)404.86471.32515.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)944.33944.33944.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.92$68.96$186.62
Upside / Downside719.74%1,518.87%4,280.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)886.15943.751,005.091,070.421,140.001,214.101,250.53
Payout Ratio34.31%45.45%56.59%67.73%78.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.06428.94568.76724.95899.041,092.691,156.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)394.28398.02401.76
Year 2 PV (M)480.57489.72498.96
Year 3 PV (M)563.05579.21595.68
Year 4 PV (M)641.84666.53691.92
Year 5 PV (M)717.07751.71787.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,920.7216,689.7017,488.11
Equity Value (M)18,717.5419,574.8820,464.09
Shares Outstanding (M)944.33944.33944.33
Fair Value$19.82$20.73$21.67
Upside / Downside365.28%386.60%408.70%

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