Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kuriyama Holdings Corporation (3355.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,641.99 - $11,688.43$6,983.24
Multi-Stage$3,400.40 - $3,716.03$3,555.34
Blended Fair Value$5,269.29
Current Price$1,483.00
Upside255.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.82%19.45%67.9230.1525.1421.1420.1519.1517.8718.0418.0516.41
YoY Growth--125.31%19.92%18.93%4.88%5.24%7.15%-0.95%-0.03%10.00%42.86%
Dividend Yield--5.13%2.29%2.88%2.19%2.86%4.32%1.91%1.62%2.18%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,072.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,111.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,961.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)814.58509.11305.47
Cash Retained (M)2,961.782,961.782,961.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-814.58-509.11-305.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,147.192,452.662,656.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.6419.6419.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share109.35124.90135.27
LTM Dividend per Share56.5856.5856.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share109.35124.90135.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend165.93181.49191.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Fair Value$4,641.99$6,983.24$11,688.43
Upside / Downside213.01%370.89%688.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,072.924,323.724,589.964,872.605,172.655,491.165,655.90
Payout Ratio27.28%39.82%52.37%64.91%77.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,111.141,721.922,403.703,162.934,006.544,942.055,231.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,566.061,580.951,595.84
Year 2 PV (M)1,988.252,026.252,064.60
Year 3 PV (M)2,379.442,447.972,517.80
Year 4 PV (M)2,741.262,847.032,955.83
Year 5 PV (M)3,075.273,224.303,379.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,022.5957,689.0260,457.83
Equity Value (M)66,772.8669,815.5072,970.94
Shares Outstanding (M)19.6419.6419.64
Fair Value$3,400.40$3,555.34$3,716.03
Upside / Downside129.29%139.74%150.58%

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