Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Lonking Holdings Limited (3339.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.69 - $3.74$3.22
Multi-Stage$5.33 - $5.87$5.60
Blended Fair Value$4.41
Current Price$1.92
Upside129.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.71%4.13%0.080.090.180.280.230.170.130.050.010.05
YoY Growth---16.30%-48.44%-35.51%21.67%33.31%33.28%133.38%284.53%-72.23%-0.02%
Dividend Yield--5.43%8.38%14.78%15.58%11.28%8.18%7.21%1.87%0.96%5.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,988.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)724.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,263.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)397.63248.52149.11
Cash Retained (M)1,263.191,263.191,263.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-397.63-248.52-149.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)865.561,014.671,114.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,280.104,280.104,280.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-4.75%-3.75%-2.75%
Fair Value$2.69$3.22$3.74
Upside / Downside40.00%67.45%94.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,988.171,913.541,841.711,772.581,706.051,642.011,691.27
Payout Ratio36.46%47.17%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)724.98902.651,065.961,215.741,352.781,477.811,564.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-4.75%-3.75%-2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)823.95832.60841.25
Year 2 PV (M)888.18906.93925.87
Year 3 PV (M)924.66954.09984.14
Year 4 PV (M)939.17979.241,020.57
Year 5 PV (M)936.52986.721,039.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,312.7219,294.4520,317.84
Equity Value (M)22,825.1923,954.0325,128.74
Shares Outstanding (M)4,280.104,280.104,280.10
Fair Value$5.33$5.60$5.87
Upside / Downside177.75%191.49%205.78%

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