Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Saudi Cement Company (3030.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.54 - $21.47$18.52
Multi-Stage$26.95 - $29.54$28.22
Blended Fair Value$23.37
Current Price$39.58
Upside-40.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.16%-10.84%2.243.333.423.503.503.253.255.005.755.50
YoY Growth---32.68%-2.78%-2.17%0.00%7.69%0.00%-35.00%-13.04%4.55%-22.11%
Dividend Yield--4.89%7.14%6.11%5.75%5.27%6.63%5.56%9.30%9.61%8.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)424.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)251.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.9453.0931.85
Cash Retained (M)173.69173.69173.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.94-53.09-31.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.75120.60141.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.00153.00153.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.790.93
LTM Dividend per Share1.641.641.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.790.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.222.432.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate-3.87%-2.87%-1.87%
Fair Value$15.54$18.52$21.47
Upside / Downside-60.74%-53.20%-45.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)424.72412.52400.67389.16377.98367.12378.13
Payout Ratio59.10%65.28%71.46%77.64%83.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)251.03269.31286.33302.15316.82330.41349.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate-3.87%-2.87%-1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)242.60245.13247.65
Year 2 PV (M)232.36237.22242.13
Year 3 PV (M)220.89227.86234.97
Year 4 PV (M)208.65217.47226.57
Year 5 PV (M)196.03206.44217.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,023.523,184.103,351.42
Equity Value (M)4,124.064,318.214,520.03
Shares Outstanding (M)153.00153.00153.00
Fair Value$26.95$28.22$29.54
Upside / Downside-31.90%-28.69%-25.36%

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