Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Yamama Saudi Cement Company (3020.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.23 - $410.16$160.63
Multi-Stage$58.10 - $63.62$60.81
Blended Fair Value$110.72
Current Price$31.74
Upside248.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS107.40%-12.35%0.991.000.000.010.490.030.000.251.462.95
YoY Growth---1.48%43,068.53%-67.10%-98.54%1,785.27%0.00%-100.00%-82.61%-50.54%-20.11%
Dividend Yield--2.48%3.04%0.01%0.02%1.46%0.14%0.00%1.59%8.00%10.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)422.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)214.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.4152.7631.66
Cash Retained (M)207.98207.98207.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.41-52.76-31.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.57155.23176.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.41202.41202.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.770.87
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.770.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$79.23$160.63$410.16
Upside / Downside149.64%406.07%1,192.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)422.07444.54468.21493.13519.39547.04563.45
Payout Ratio50.72%58.58%66.43%74.29%82.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)214.09260.40311.05366.34426.65492.33521.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)242.14244.47246.79
Year 2 PV (M)268.95274.13279.36
Year 3 PV (M)294.55303.11311.82
Year 4 PV (M)318.99331.39344.16
Year 5 PV (M)342.28359.01376.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,293.4210,796.3111,318.67
Equity Value (M)11,760.3412,308.4112,877.17
Shares Outstanding (M)202.41202.41202.41
Fair Value$58.10$60.81$63.62
Upside / Downside83.05%91.59%100.44%

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