Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongjing Food Co., Ltd. (300908.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.31 - $49.71$33.15
Multi-Stage$18.42 - $20.04$19.22
Blended Fair Value$26.19
Current Price$29.03
Upside-9.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.88%28.63%0.890.690.360.340.260.640.200.200.160.15
YoY Growth--29.16%92.90%3.92%30.13%-58.61%223.55%-3.02%25.91%6.22%111.87%
Dividend Yield--3.19%2.44%1.19%1.22%0.63%0.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.0322.5213.51
Cash Retained (M)33.9933.9933.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.03-22.52-13.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.0411.4820.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)146.00146.00146.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.31$33.15$49.71
Upside / Downside-19.71%14.21%71.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.14191.85204.32217.61231.75246.81254.22
Payout Ratio81.13%82.90%84.68%86.45%88.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.15159.05173.02188.12204.46222.13235.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)143.28144.64146.00
Year 2 PV (M)140.40143.07145.77
Year 3 PV (M)137.52141.46145.49
Year 4 PV (M)134.64139.81145.14
Year 5 PV (M)131.76138.13144.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,001.832,098.522,198.91
Equity Value (M)2,689.422,805.632,926.04
Shares Outstanding (M)146.00146.00146.00
Fair Value$18.42$19.22$20.04
Upside / Downside-36.55%-33.81%-30.97%

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