Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Haoyang Electronic Co.,Ltd. (300833.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.81 - $21.47$17.35
Multi-Stage$17.99 - $19.60$18.78
Blended Fair Value$18.06
Current Price$42.99
Upside-57.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS448.87%0.00%1.601.450.530.270.000.000.000.000.090.07
YoY Growth--10.54%171.39%99.85%0.00%-100.00%-91.66%-12.28%-95.31%29.93%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.10%2.26%0.75%0.61%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.5222.2013.32
Cash Retained (M)13.1313.1313.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.52-22.20-13.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)-22.38-9.07-0.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)126.50126.50126.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.070.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.070.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Fair Value$13.81$17.35$21.47
Upside / Downside-67.88%-59.64%-50.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.59182.45187.45192.58197.86203.28209.37
Payout Ratio92.60%92.08%91.56%91.04%90.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.45168.01171.63175.33179.10182.95193.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)151.23152.71154.20
Year 2 PV (M)139.06141.81144.58
Year 3 PV (M)127.87131.68135.56
Year 4 PV (M)117.58122.27127.10
Year 5 PV (M)108.11113.53119.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,631.841,713.631,798.67
Equity Value (M)2,275.692,375.632,479.28
Shares Outstanding (M)126.50126.50126.50
Fair Value$17.99$18.78$19.60
Upside / Downside-58.15%-56.31%-54.41%

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