Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong South New Media Co.,Ltd. (300770.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.29 - $123.34$83.59
Multi-Stage$46.94 - $51.12$48.99
Blended Fair Value$66.29
Current Price$47.60
Upside39.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%3.172.161.200.800.500.000.220.000.000.00
YoY Growth--46.73%80.00%49.47%59.23%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.01%5.31%2.60%2.00%1.05%0.00%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)742.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)473.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)268.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)148.4392.7755.66
Cash Retained (M)268.67268.67268.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-148.43-92.77-55.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.23175.90213.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)228.80228.80228.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.770.93
LTM Dividend per Share2.072.072.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.770.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.592.843.00
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.39%6.39%7.39%
Fair Value$59.29$83.59$123.34
Upside / Downside24.56%75.60%159.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)742.16789.56839.99893.63950.711,011.431,041.77
Payout Ratio63.80%69.04%74.28%79.52%84.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)473.49545.11623.94710.61805.82910.28963.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.39%6.39%7.39%
Year 1 PV (M)490.90495.56500.21
Year 2 PV (M)506.01515.66525.40
Year 3 PV (M)518.99533.91549.11
Year 4 PV (M)530.00550.40571.39
Year 5 PV (M)539.17565.24592.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,154.788,549.098,958.51
Equity Value (M)10,739.8511,209.8511,696.92
Shares Outstanding (M)228.80228.80228.80
Fair Value$46.94$48.99$51.12
Upside / Downside-1.39%2.93%7.40%

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