Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ningbo BaoSi Energy Equipment Co., Ltd. (300441.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.44 - $18.13$12.04
Multi-Stage$6.58 - $7.16$6.86
Blended Fair Value$9.45
Current Price$8.31
Upside13.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.13%32.61%0.230.070.150.240.080.060.060.100.030.01
YoY Growth--215.75%-50.18%-37.24%199.80%31.04%7.85%-45.03%296.21%100.00%-7.67%
Dividend Yield--2.37%1.02%2.54%3.05%0.74%0.69%0.70%0.76%0.22%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)290.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)209.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.0436.2721.76
Cash Retained (M)81.1181.1181.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.04-36.27-21.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.0744.8459.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)655.12655.12655.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.44$12.04$18.13
Upside / Downside1.56%44.83%118.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)290.18309.04329.13350.52373.31397.57409.50
Payout Ratio72.05%75.64%79.23%82.82%86.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)209.07233.76260.77290.30322.57357.81378.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)210.65212.64214.64
Year 2 PV (M)211.75215.79219.86
Year 3 PV (M)212.43218.53224.74
Year 4 PV (M)212.71220.89229.30
Year 5 PV (M)212.62222.89233.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,248.053,404.943,567.82
Equity Value (M)4,308.214,495.674,689.91
Shares Outstanding (M)655.12655.12655.12
Fair Value$6.58$6.86$7.16
Upside / Downside-20.86%-17.42%-13.85%

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