Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tokaido REIT, Inc. (2989.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$100,369.98 - $146,647.36$122,709.18
Multi-Stage$186,639.16 - $204,352.98$195,326.92
Blended Fair Value$159,018.05
Current Price$103,300.00
Upside53.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%6,226.194,329.921,657.550.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--43.79%161.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.00%3.60%1.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,464.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,102.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)692.94433.09259.85
Cash Retained (M)362.35362.35362.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-692.94-433.09-259.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)-330.59-70.74102.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.260.260.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,269.30-271.60393.54
LTM Dividend per Share11,911.4811,911.4811,911.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,269.30-271.60393.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,642.1811,639.8812,305.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$100,369.98$122,709.18$146,647.36
Upside / Downside-2.84%18.79%41.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,464.693,430.053,395.753,361.793,328.173,294.893,393.74
Payout Ratio89.54%89.63%89.73%89.82%89.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,102.353,074.473,046.833,019.452,992.302,965.403,139.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,807.812,836.462,865.11
Year 2 PV (M)2,541.242,593.362,646.02
Year 3 PV (M)2,299.972,371.102,443.68
Year 4 PV (M)2,081.602,167.882,256.80
Year 5 PV (M)1,883.971,982.072,084.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,995.5838,922.0340,927.90
Equity Value (M)48,610.1750,872.9053,223.73
Shares Outstanding (M)0.260.260.26
Fair Value$186,639.16$195,326.92$204,352.98
Upside / Downside80.68%89.09%97.82%

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