Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

President Chain Store Corporation (2912.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$209.79 - $467.49$303.06
Multi-Stage$211.18 - $230.60$220.71
Blended Fair Value$261.88
Current Price$256.50
Upside2.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.69%6.82%11.598.998.998.998.998.7924.977.997.196.99
YoY Growth--28.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.27%-64.80%212.50%11.11%2.86%16.67%
Dividend Yield--4.62%3.34%3.34%3.42%3.30%3.11%8.38%2.70%2.88%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,176.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,357.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,819.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,235.351,397.09838.26
Cash Retained (M)1,819.701,819.701,819.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,235.35-1,397.09-838.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)-415.64422.61981.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,040.981,040.981,040.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.400.410.94
LTM Dividend per Share8.998.998.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.400.410.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.599.399.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Fair Value$209.79$303.06$467.49
Upside / Downside-18.21%18.15%82.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,176.7411,701.1712,250.2012,825.0013,426.7614,056.7714,478.47
Payout Ratio83.72%84.98%86.23%87.49%88.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,357.049,943.0810,563.5111,220.2811,915.4212,651.0913,392.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Year 1 PV (M)9,123.909,211.899,299.88
Year 2 PV (M)8,894.629,067.009,241.04
Year 3 PV (M)8,669.268,922.509,180.63
Year 4 PV (M)8,447.878,778.499,118.73
Year 5 PV (M)8,230.488,635.089,055.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)176,463.68185,138.41194,150.99
Equity Value (M)219,829.79229,753.37240,046.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,040.981,040.981,040.98
Fair Value$211.18$220.71$230.60
Upside / Downside-17.67%-13.95%-10.10%

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