Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CTBC Financial Holding Co., Ltd. (2891.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.95 - $667.38$223.08
Multi-Stage$75.92 - $82.86$79.33
Blended Fair Value$151.20
Current Price$42.90
Upside252.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.64%20.71%1.841.041.281.081.031.021.060.980.730.62
YoY Growth--76.93%-18.73%18.55%5.15%1.18%-3.91%8.22%33.33%18.16%121.07%
Dividend Yield--4.67%3.29%5.87%3.68%4.65%5.68%5.21%4.61%3.91%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74,138.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46,725.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,412.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,827.699,267.305,560.38
Cash Retained (M)27,412.6227,412.6227,412.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,827.69-9,267.30-5,560.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,584.9418,145.3221,852.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,923.3919,923.3919,923.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.911.10
LTM Dividend per Share2.352.352.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.911.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.983.263.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.95$223.08$667.38
Upside / Downside186.60%420.00%1,455.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74,138.4378,957.4384,089.6689,555.4995,376.60101,576.08104,623.36
Payout Ratio63.03%68.42%73.82%79.21%84.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46,725.8154,022.7362,070.8370,936.9480,693.3991,418.4796,776.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49,526.4049,995.8450,465.29
Year 2 PV (M)52,168.4653,162.1254,165.16
Year 3 PV (M)54,657.9256,226.9557,825.73
Year 4 PV (M)57,000.5259,192.6061,447.31
Year 5 PV (M)59,201.8262,061.2965,030.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,239,933.041,299,822.271,362,003.60
Equity Value (M)1,512,488.161,580,461.071,650,937.28
Shares Outstanding (M)19,923.3919,923.3919,923.39
Fair Value$75.92$79.33$82.86
Upside / Downside76.96%84.91%93.16%

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