DDM Analysis: 2877.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$67.95 - $223.71	$110.51
Multi-Stage	$67.60 - $74.10	$70.78
Blended Fair Value	$90.65
Current Price	$7.15
Upside	1,167.82%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.37%	4.10%	0.54	0.42	0.32	0.60	0.32	0.33	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.36
YoY Growth	-	-	28.57%	31.25%	-46.65%	87.63%	-3.05%	-4.64%	-1.31%	0.00%	-3.03%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.96%	6.27%	4.78%	10.69%	7.15%	5.00%	5.18%	5.73%	4.45%	4.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,932.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	762.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,169.81

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	386.55	241.60	144.96
Cash Retained (M)	1,169.81	1,169.81	1,169.81
(-) Cash Required (M)	-386.55	-241.60	-144.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)	783.25	928.21	1,024.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	755.40	755.40	755.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.04	1.23	1.36
LTM Dividend per Share	1.01	1.01	1.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.04	1.23	1.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.05	2.24	2.37
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	3.42%	4.42%	5.42%
Fair Value	$67.95	$110.51	$223.71
Upside / Downside	850.35%	1,445.65%	3,028.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,932.76	2,018.14	2,107.28	2,200.37	2,297.56	2,399.05	2,471.02
Payout Ratio	39.47%	49.58%	59.68%	69.79%	79.89%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	762.95	1,000.59	1,257.73	1,535.63	1,835.64	2,159.15	2,285.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	3.42%	4.42%	5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	930.24	939.23	948.23
Year 2 PV (M)	1,087.09	1,108.21	1,129.54
Year 3 PV (M)	1,233.97	1,270.11	1,306.95
Year 4 PV (M)	1,371.33	1,425.14	1,480.52
Year 5 PV (M)	1,499.60	1,573.52	1,650.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	44,939.22	47,154.36	49,456.00
Equity Value (M)	51,061.43	53,470.57	55,971.57
Shares Outstanding (M)	755.40	755.40	755.40
Fair Value	$67.60	$70.78	$74.10
Upside / Downside	845.39%	889.99%	936.30%

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Financial Statements

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China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited (2877.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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