Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Perennial Energy Holdings Limited (2798.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.77 - $5.52$4.61
Multi-Stage$6.39 - $7.03$6.70
Blended Fair Value$5.66
Current Price$0.68
Upside727.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.110.030.030.020.000.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth---59.42%264.20%-7.71%45.25%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.13%14.50%4.89%2.50%0.27%0.00%15.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)796.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)720.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.3299.5759.74
Cash Retained (M)720.80720.80720.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.32-99.57-59.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)561.48621.22661.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.77$4.61$5.52
Upside / Downside451.43%574.47%706.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)796.60788.63780.74772.94765.21757.55780.28
Payout Ratio9.52%25.61%41.71%57.81%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.80201.98325.64446.80565.51681.80721.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)184.54186.42188.31
Year 2 PV (M)271.83277.40283.03
Year 3 PV (M)340.76351.30362.05
Year 4 PV (M)394.04410.38427.21
Year 5 PV (M)434.05456.65480.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,594.149,041.669,507.62
Equity Value (M)10,219.3510,723.8011,248.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
Fair Value$6.39$6.70$7.03
Upside / Downside833.58%879.66%927.59%

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