Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Anhui Conch Material Technology Co Ltd (2560.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.73 - $7.30$5.93
Multi-Stage$10.67 - $11.74$11.20
Blended Fair Value$8.56
Current Price$1.55
Upside452.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.060.040.090.060.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%27.15%-52.50%62.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.89%2.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)277.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)138.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.4834.6820.81
Cash Retained (M)139.28139.28139.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.48-34.68-20.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.80104.61118.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)540.59540.59540.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.73$5.93$7.30
Upside / Downside205.28%282.27%370.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)277.40274.63271.88269.16266.47263.81271.72
Payout Ratio49.79%57.83%65.87%73.92%81.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)138.12158.82179.10198.95218.39237.43251.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)147.62149.13150.63
Year 2 PV (M)154.72157.90161.10
Year 3 PV (M)159.75164.69169.74
Year 4 PV (M)162.99169.75176.71
Year 5 PV (M)164.70173.28182.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,978.525,237.765,507.69
Equity Value (M)5,768.316,052.516,348.09
Shares Outstanding (M)540.59540.59540.59
Fair Value$10.67$11.20$11.74
Upside / Downside588.41%622.32%657.60%

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