Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. (2555.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.19 - $14.27$11.54
Multi-Stage$21.89 - $24.07$22.95
Blended Fair Value$17.25
Current Price$8.68
Upside98.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.690.440.290.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---98.61%57.42%47.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.09%5.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,349.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,027.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)269.83168.64101.19
Cash Retained (M)321.17321.17321.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-269.83-168.64-101.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.34152.52219.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.19$11.54$14.27
Upside / Downside5.83%32.93%64.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,349.151,335.651,322.301,309.081,295.981,283.021,321.52
Payout Ratio76.19%78.96%81.72%84.48%87.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,027.981,054.581,080.541,105.881,130.601,154.721,222.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)981.97991.991,002.01
Year 2 PV (M)936.87956.09975.50
Year 3 PV (M)892.83920.44948.61
Year 4 PV (M)849.94885.17921.48
Year 5 PV (M)808.31850.40894.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,857.2127,203.6628,605.62
Equity Value (M)30,327.1331,807.7433,347.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
Fair Value$21.89$22.95$24.07
Upside / Downside152.14%164.45%177.25%

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