Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hollwin Urban Operation Service Group Co., Ltd (2529.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.62 - $9.40$7.99
Multi-Stage$10.05 - $11.03$10.53
Blended Fair Value$9.26
Current Price$2.74
Upside238.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.040.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--591.55%-33.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.94%1.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)142.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.5717.8610.71
Cash Retained (M)107.66107.66107.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.57-17.86-10.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.0989.8196.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)142.51142.51142.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.62$7.99$9.40
Upside / Downside141.74%191.68%243.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)142.86141.44140.02138.62137.23135.86139.94
Payout Ratio24.64%37.71%50.78%63.86%76.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.2053.3471.1188.52105.57122.28129.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)48.0648.5549.04
Year 2 PV (M)57.7358.9160.11
Year 3 PV (M)64.7566.7568.79
Year 4 PV (M)69.5872.4675.43
Year 5 PV (M)72.6176.3980.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,119.591,177.891,238.59
Equity Value (M)1,432.301,500.941,572.28
Shares Outstanding (M)142.51142.51142.51
Fair Value$10.05$10.53$11.03
Upside / Downside266.80%284.38%302.65%

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