Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hung Ching Development & Construction Co., Ltd. (2527.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.39 - $425.83$193.17
Multi-Stage$150.47 - $165.20$157.69
Blended Fair Value$175.43
Current Price$25.40
Upside590.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.56%6.49%1.501.003.011.401.801.200.800.801.101.50
YoY Growth--50.00%-66.67%114.29%-22.22%50.00%50.00%0.00%-27.27%-26.67%87.50%
Dividend Yield--4.58%2.29%13.55%4.68%8.49%6.84%3.46%2.75%5.13%8.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,079.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)523.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)555.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)215.81134.8880.93
Cash Retained (M)555.56555.56555.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-215.81-134.88-80.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)339.74420.67474.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)261.10261.10261.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.611.82
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.611.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.313.623.82
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Fair Value$115.39$193.17$425.83
Upside / Downside354.29%660.53%1,576.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,079.071,117.531,157.361,198.601,241.321,285.561,324.13
Payout Ratio48.52%56.81%65.11%73.41%81.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)523.52634.90753.55879.851,014.201,157.011,224.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Year 1 PV (M)595.97601.78607.59
Year 2 PV (M)663.98676.99690.13
Year 3 PV (M)727.74749.24771.15
Year 4 PV (M)787.43818.60850.67
Year 5 PV (M)843.24885.15928.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,668.9437,442.0439,284.97
Equity Value (M)39,287.3041,173.8043,133.24
Shares Outstanding (M)261.10261.10261.10
Fair Value$150.47$157.69$165.20
Upside / Downside492.39%520.84%550.38%

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