Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Launch Tech Company Limited (2488.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$257.37 - $303.23$284.17
Multi-Stage$210.76 - $231.32$220.85
Blended Fair Value$252.51
Current Price$11.58
Upside2,080.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.65%16.48%0.490.360.060.030.050.130.260.210.050.08
YoY Growth--35.60%540.97%88.27%-42.65%-59.44%-50.51%24.44%277.88%-35.07%-20.08%
Dividend Yield--5.66%20.80%2.36%1.23%1.46%4.47%4.95%3.28%0.83%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)638.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.6279.7647.86
Cash Retained (M)435.04435.04435.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.62-79.76-47.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)307.42355.28387.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.51418.51418.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.850.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.850.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate-1.46%-1.46%-1.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$257.37$284.17$303.23
Upside / Downside2,122.56%2,353.97%2,518.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)638.11679.59723.76770.80820.90874.26900.49
Payout Ratio31.82%43.46%55.09%66.73%78.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.07295.34398.75514.35643.30786.84832.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.46%-1.46%-1.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)296.90299.71302.53
Year 2 PV (M)402.97410.65418.39
Year 3 PV (M)522.55537.55552.83
Year 4 PV (M)657.00682.27708.26
Year 5 PV (M)807.85846.87887.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,519.6789,650.3093,939.02
Equity Value (M)88,206.9492,427.3596,808.42
Shares Outstanding (M)418.51418.51418.51
Fair Value$210.76$220.85$231.32
Upside / Downside1,720.08%1,807.16%1,897.56%

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