Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wellnet Corporation (2428.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$511.55 - $775.76$635.77
Multi-Stage$737.28 - $807.96$771.95
Blended Fair Value$703.86
Current Price$716.00
Upside-1.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-14.92%-0.91%22.0316.7314.0515.3313.0049.4048.9149.7439.2025.14
YoY Growth--31.68%19.08%-8.38%17.96%-73.69%1.01%-1.68%26.91%55.94%4.18%
Dividend Yield--3.08%2.26%2.39%2.59%2.47%8.26%6.88%4.80%3.29%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,090.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)417.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)672.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)218.02136.2681.76
Cash Retained (M)672.73672.73672.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-218.02-136.26-81.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.71536.47590.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.9618.9618.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.9828.2931.16
LTM Dividend per Share22.0122.0122.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.9828.2931.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend45.9950.3053.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$511.55$635.77$775.76
Upside / Downside-28.55%-11.21%8.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,090.101,101.861,113.741,125.741,137.881,150.151,184.65
Payout Ratio38.29%48.63%58.97%69.32%79.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)417.38535.83656.80780.31906.411,035.131,095.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)486.40491.26496.12
Year 2 PV (M)541.19552.06563.04
Year 3 PV (M)583.64601.31619.33
Year 4 PV (M)615.40640.37666.09
Year 5 PV (M)637.95670.47704.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,117.4211,684.0712,273.59
Equity Value (M)13,981.9914,639.5315,322.46
Shares Outstanding (M)18.9618.9618.96
Fair Value$737.28$771.95$807.96
Upside / Downside2.97%7.81%12.84%

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