Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Modern Mills for Food Products Co. (2284.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.75 - $49.26$38.39
Multi-Stage$101.31 - $111.60$106.35
Blended Fair Value$72.37
Current Price$32.30
Upside124.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.991.722.184.970.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.73%-21.06%-56.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.01%2.78%3.50%7.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)213.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.9026.8116.09
Cash Retained (M)0.990.990.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.90-26.81-16.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-41.91-25.83-15.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.2381.2381.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.52-0.32-0.19
LTM Dividend per Share2.632.632.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.52-0.32-0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.112.312.44
WACC / Discount Rate4.96%4.96%4.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$29.75$38.39$49.26
Upside / Downside-7.89%18.85%52.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.49212.35210.22208.12206.04203.98210.10
Payout Ratio99.54%97.63%95.72%93.82%91.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)213.50207.32201.23195.25189.37183.58194.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.96%4.96%4.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)195.53197.52199.52
Year 2 PV (M)179.00182.67186.38
Year 3 PV (M)163.80168.86174.03
Year 4 PV (M)149.83156.04162.44
Year 5 PV (M)136.99144.12151.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,403.827,789.358,190.78
Equity Value (M)8,228.968,638.579,064.70
Shares Outstanding (M)81.2381.2381.23
Fair Value$101.31$106.35$111.60
Upside / Downside213.65%229.26%245.50%

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