Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Smart-Core Holdings Limited (2166.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.16 - $6.45$5.22
Multi-Stage$6.79 - $7.45$7.12
Blended Fair Value$6.17
Current Price$1.67
Upside269.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.57%0.00%0.070.060.120.080.040.060.050.020.070.00
YoY Growth--15.71%-51.39%48.53%96.31%-34.07%20.98%150.23%-67.82%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.45%3.73%5.29%5.26%3.37%4.26%3.09%1.23%3.31%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)207.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.4525.9115.54
Cash Retained (M)128.44128.44128.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.45-25.91-15.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.99102.54112.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)473.68473.68473.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Fair Value$4.16$5.22$6.45
Upside / Downside149.17%212.58%286.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)207.26208.45209.64210.85212.06213.28219.67
Payout Ratio38.03%48.42%58.82%69.21%79.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.81100.93123.30145.93168.81191.95203.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)92.5793.5094.43
Year 2 PV (M)103.72105.81107.92
Year 3 PV (M)112.58116.00119.50
Year 4 PV (M)119.44124.31129.33
Year 5 PV (M)124.55130.94137.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,663.362,799.812,941.80
Equity Value (M)3,216.213,370.363,530.55
Shares Outstanding (M)473.68473.68473.68
Fair Value$6.79$7.12$7.45
Upside / Downside306.58%326.07%346.32%

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