Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Lesso Group Holdings Limited (2128.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.54 - $16.11$13.14
Multi-Stage$19.71 - $21.70$20.69
Blended Fair Value$16.92
Current Price$3.82
Upside342.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.34%6.62%0.180.270.210.420.360.280.230.130.110.10
YoY Growth---32.59%28.12%-49.21%16.71%26.36%21.17%73.95%21.24%6.39%7.92%
Dividend Yield--5.59%7.61%2.93%4.55%3.48%3.16%6.75%3.08%2.45%2.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,604.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)571.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,033.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)720.85450.53270.32
Cash Retained (M)3,033.153,033.153,033.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-720.85-450.53-270.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,312.302,582.622,762.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,079.433,079.433,079.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.840.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.840.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate-1.49%-0.49%0.51%
Fair Value$10.54$13.14$16.11
Upside / Downside175.82%244.04%321.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,604.263,586.683,569.203,551.803,534.483,517.253,622.76
Payout Ratio15.85%30.68%45.51%60.34%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)571.101,100.261,624.242,143.092,656.833,165.523,351.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate-1.49%-0.49%0.51%
Year 1 PV (M)1,015.411,025.721,036.03
Year 2 PV (M)1,383.391,411.621,440.13
Year 3 PV (M)1,684.541,736.361,789.24
Year 4 PV (M)1,927.322,006.782,088.67
Year 5 PV (M)2,119.252,229.022,343.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,576.5455,299.7958,134.74
Equity Value (M)60,706.4663,709.2966,832.09
Shares Outstanding (M)3,079.433,079.433,079.43
Fair Value$19.71$20.69$21.70
Upside / Downside416.06%441.59%468.14%

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