Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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UNION biometrics Co., Ltd. (203450.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,006.76 - $6,134.32$5,000.42
Multi-Stage$5,554.01 - $6,094.86$5,819.28
Blended Fair Value$5,409.85
Current Price$3,160.00
Upside71.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.94%0.00%73.881.770.0076.6176.4077.4679.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4,081.98%0.00%-100.00%0.28%-1.37%-1.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.58%0.05%0.00%2.18%1.59%3.83%2.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,290.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)922.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,368.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,058.17661.36396.81
Cash Retained (M)4,368.734,368.734,368.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,058.17-661.36-396.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,310.563,707.373,971.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.1712.1712.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share272.06304.67326.41
LTM Dividend per Share75.7875.7875.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share272.06304.67326.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend347.84380.45402.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Fair Value$4,006.76$5,000.42$6,134.32
Upside / Downside26.80%58.24%94.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,290.865,359.165,428.345,498.425,569.405,641.295,810.53
Payout Ratio17.43%31.94%46.46%60.97%75.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)922.131,711.872,521.863,352.474,204.105,077.165,374.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)1,555.061,570.561,586.07
Year 2 PV (M)2,080.992,122.692,164.81
Year 3 PV (M)2,512.972,588.892,666.33
Year 4 PV (M)2,862.662,978.563,097.94
Year 5 PV (M)3,140.463,300.183,466.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,431.3358,250.5261,183.26
Equity Value (M)67,583.4670,811.4074,164.74
Shares Outstanding (M)12.1712.1712.17
Fair Value$5,554.01$5,819.28$6,094.86
Upside / Downside75.76%84.15%92.88%

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