Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co., Ltd. (2027.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.47 - $167.97$95.93
Multi-Stage$56.28 - $61.61$58.90
Blended Fair Value$77.41
Current Price$38.50
Upside101.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.29%18.62%1.131.891.400.940.922.310.330.180.170.21
YoY Growth---40.00%34.67%48.78%2.38%-60.16%593.41%83.01%8.06%-17.93%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.30%5.19%3.70%2.33%3.62%11.27%0.97%0.88%1.36%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,074.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,342.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,731.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,214.90759.31455.59
Cash Retained (M)3,731.973,731.973,731.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,214.90-759.31-455.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,517.072,972.663,276.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.462,270.462,270.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.111.311.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.031.031.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.111.311.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.342.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$62.47$95.93$167.97
Upside / Downside62.26%149.16%336.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,074.486,373.966,688.217,017.957,363.957,727.007,958.81
Payout Ratio38.56%48.85%59.14%69.43%79.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,342.513,113.723,955.274,872.235,870.006,954.307,361.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)2,869.122,896.722,924.33
Year 2 PV (M)3,358.263,423.203,488.76
Year 3 PV (M)3,811.853,922.954,036.18
Year 4 PV (M)4,231.714,396.944,566.97
Year 5 PV (M)4,619.564,846.125,081.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,893.21114,233.76119,781.83
Equity Value (M)127,783.71133,719.70139,879.55
Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.462,270.462,270.46
Fair Value$56.28$58.90$61.61
Upside / Downside46.18%52.98%60.02%

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